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The Impossibility of Forecasting the Natural Gas Market

Oilprice.com -- Let me start by admitting that the future of natural gas is especially difficult to predict. Commodity forecasting is always a pseudo-science at best. At times it seems that its primary function is to make astrology look respectable.

But America has enormous natural gas resources, roughly a 100 year supply. That supply could be the low cost/low pollution energy source that provides a bridge to a better economic and environmental future. Or it may just sit in the ground for some time.

After 25 years in the oil and gas business I spent ten years working in public policy and politics. In many ways that made geophysics seem pretty straightforward. But I did learn at least one valuable lesson: In spite of all the flowery words, there is no more powerful force for change than the market.

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Submitted May 08, 2012 By: NOTSOGRN

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honda0105 Champion Author Tallahassee Posts:18,643 Points:1,611,470 Joined:Nov 2008	Message Posted: May 11, 2012 9:02:54 PM Ignore honda0105 Report Abuse forecasting... hmm... ya mean accuracy like the weather forecast for Days 7 through 10?
1006 Champion Author Birmingham Posts:1,105 Points:1,356,940 Joined:Apr 2008	Message Posted: May 11, 2012 3:32:51 AM Ignore 1006 Report Abuse but can we depend
sparky808 Champion Author Honolulu Posts:3,013 Points:600,660 Joined:Sep 2011	Message Posted: May 9, 2012 10:30:48 AM Ignore sparky808 Report Abuse Thank you for posting.
ROSYMI Champion Author Michigan Posts:1,028 Points:370,250 Joined:Nov 2011	Message Posted: May 9, 2012 8:22:56 AM Ignore ROSYMI Report Abuse natural gas is also to much
tomok Champion Author Portland Posts:33,073 Points:2,347,460 Joined:Aug 2006	Message Posted: May 9, 2012 12:11:00 AM Ignore tomok Report Abuse There are too many factors and the government involved in forecasting the Natural Gas market and prices. Develop Natural Gas to fuel a vehicle and have many more vehicles using natural gas. Natural gas can be one of many fuels for vehicles and trucks to use. Keep natural gas for heating homes – low priced! Whatever the size or shape of the vehicle, Produce and ‘Drive’ vehicles with high MPG, are very reliable, have a ‘reasonable’ cost and a good ‘value’ for the money. Consider using other forms of less expensive transportation to lower your cost, if possible! The price of fuel at the pump is too high! 12/22/2012!
TIGERPAW46 Champion Author Florida Posts:7,138 Points:1,358,545 Joined:Mar 2004	Message Posted: May 8, 2012 9:46:47 PM Ignore TIGERPAW46 Report Abuse Right N3tbc, We have to use the least expensive available while developing alternate energy. At the same time we can do so as clean as possible. many alternates including Ethanol are worse than reg. gas without Ethanol.
n3tbc Veteran Author Wilmington Posts:355 Points:332,825 Joined:Sep 2011	Message Posted: May 8, 2012 9:39:49 PM Ignore n3tbc Report Abuse We do need to move away from fossil fuels but it will take time. Oil and gas is what we use now and will be here for some time to come. In the past it was coal and wood - times change and so will our fuel sources.
granitestater Champion Author New Hampshire Posts:8,836 Points:1,432,700 Joined:Oct 2008	Message Posted: May 8, 2012 9:39:41 PM Ignore granitestater Report Abuse The question is about building the infrastructure needed to convert ICE vehicles to nat gas use...
Eugenian Champion Author Oregon Posts:1,872 Points:364,955 Joined:Oct 2009	Message Posted: May 8, 2012 9:37:37 PM Ignore Eugenian Report Abuse Price speculation is a risky business.
tedjm1 Champion Author New York Posts:5,609 Points:800,300 Joined:Dec 2006	Message Posted: May 8, 2012 9:33:53 PM Ignore tedjm1 Report Abuse We need to be like George Jetson.
us4usa Champion Author Missouri Posts:6,003 Points:1,115,215 Joined:May 2008	Message Posted: May 8, 2012 9:30:33 PM Ignore us4usa Report Abuse In 50/75 years they will find a way to power cars and homes... We need to work on the next 3/5 years...
HYEgasCA Champion Author Fresno Posts:2,111 Points:912,500 Joined:Dec 2008	Message Posted: May 8, 2012 9:30:29 PM Ignore HYEgasCA Report Abuse "Oh ya!! We all share in the cost" Gosh....that sound so good. You share what you want, and Ill share what I want. OK Little Man!!
preacherboyFL Veteran Author Orlando Posts:444 Points:124,960 Joined:Feb 2012	Message Posted: May 8, 2012 9:29:28 PM Ignore preacherboyFL Report Abuse Jesus said, "I tell you the truth, whoever hears my word and believes him who sent me has eternal life and will not be condemned; he has crossed over from death to life.
KrsnaDragon Champion Author Montreal Posts:2,422 Points:533,575 Joined:Nov 2011	Message Posted: May 8, 2012 9:28:36 PM Ignore KrsnaDragon Report Abuse LOL, "clean coal"!
viperND Champion Author South Bend Posts:3,320 Points:737,890 Joined:Apr 2011	Message Posted: May 8, 2012 9:28:34 PM Ignore viperND Report Abuse :/
BluWahoo Champion Author Pensacola Posts:3,125 Points:381,640 Joined:Mar 2012	Message Posted: May 8, 2012 9:27:59 PM Ignore BluWahoo Report Abuse Natural Gas for homes has increased too much over the past 5 years.
BobD2009 Champion Author Long Island Posts:7,004 Points:1,242,710 Joined:Apr 2009	Message Posted: May 8, 2012 9:24:06 PM Ignore BobD2009 Report Abuse So they are guessing?
ricebike Champion Author New Jersey Posts:10,043 Points:1,857,670 Joined:Oct 2005	Message Posted: May 8, 2012 9:23:43 PM Ignore ricebike Report Abuse Z51Corvette says "Should be simple... Supply and Demand!" if you believe that, then you also believe in unicorns? speculators will find a way to take that supply-demand equation out of the loop when this gets mainstream
Aviator_Rob Champion Author New York Posts:3,810 Points:416,040 Joined:Mar 2012	Message Posted: May 8, 2012 9:21:34 PM Ignore Aviator_Rob Report Abuse Well, HYEgasCA. I'm a big believer in the concept that if everyone is going to share in the benefit, they should share in the cost. Everyone benefits from cleaner air so what exactly is your argument? [Edited by: Aviator_Rob at 5/9/2012 12:23:26 AM EST]
Agarre Champion Author Richmond Posts:1,335 Points:263,785 Joined:Feb 2012	Message Posted: May 8, 2012 9:20:26 PM Ignore Agarre Report Abuse ok
Blue48 Champion Author Illinois Posts:7,320 Points:1,640,870 Joined:Feb 2007	Message Posted: May 8, 2012 9:20:04 PM Ignore Blue48 Report Abuse TAKE A GUESS!
GigHarborHound Champion Author Tacoma Posts:2,547 Points:490,440 Joined:Sep 2011	Message Posted: May 8, 2012 9:19:11 PM Ignore GigHarborHound Report Abuse DUH!!!!!
crreed1 Champion Author West Virginia Posts:2,000 Points:2,529,260 Joined:May 2005	Message Posted: May 8, 2012 9:19:06 PM Ignore crreed1 Report Abuse we will see
Toppers Champion Author Atlanta Posts:9,022 Points:2,472,645 Joined:Mar 2005	Message Posted: May 8, 2012 9:18:45 PM Ignore Toppers Report Abuse Lookin' good for the US!
joel27nc Champion Author Raleigh Posts:10,552 Points:1,861,295 Joined:Mar 2008	Message Posted: May 8, 2012 9:18:27 PM Ignore joel27nc Report Abuse What goes around, eventually comes around. Don't give up on natural gas.
Z51Corvette Champion Author Austin Posts:8,501 Points:1,674,095 Joined:Jan 2008	Message Posted: May 8, 2012 9:17:41 PM Ignore Z51Corvette Report Abuse Should besimple... Supply and Demand!
frostyWV Champion Author West Virginia Posts:2,339 Points:519,235 Joined:May 2011	Message Posted: May 8, 2012 9:17:01 PM Ignore frostyWV Report Abuse time will tell.
Bubba44612 Champion Author Ohio Posts:7,411 Points:1,880,005 Joined:Aug 2005	Message Posted: May 8, 2012 9:16:52 PM Ignore Bubba44612 Report Abuse Once they get the approval to export it watch the price go way up.
FlyNFool Champion Author South Carolina Posts:8,254 Points:1,687,900 Joined:Aug 2008	Message Posted: May 8, 2012 9:16:19 PM Ignore FlyNFool Report Abuse Supply and demand.
millerin Champion Author Orlando Posts:2,322 Points:483,315 Joined:Jan 2012	Message Posted: May 8, 2012 9:12:14 PM Ignore millerin Report Abuse hmmm...
regout Champion Author Quebec Posts:2,965 Points:834,655 Joined:May 2010	Message Posted: May 8, 2012 9:11:28 PM Ignore regout Report Abuse Very good.
bvrbill Champion Author Eugene Posts:3,238 Points:520,800 Joined:Jul 2011	Message Posted: May 8, 2012 9:10:02 PM Ignore bvrbill Report Abuse Good article.
miser709 Champion Author Grand Rapids Posts:1,268 Points:1,072,550 Joined:Mar 2004	Message Posted: May 8, 2012 9:09:41 PM Ignore miser709 Report Abuse Good!
rawdog1313 Champion Author Lexington Posts:3,319 Points:1,645,830 Joined:May 2008	Message Posted: May 8, 2012 9:09:37 PM Ignore rawdog1313 Report Abuse Regulate the market............
TheeRedRam Champion Author Hartford Posts:3,173 Points:675,335 Joined:Jun 2011	Message Posted: May 8, 2012 9:09:34 PM Ignore TheeRedRam Report Abuse Hummmmmm
HYEgasCA Champion Author Fresno Posts:2,111 Points:912,500 Joined:Dec 2008	Message Posted: May 8, 2012 9:09:28 PM Ignore HYEgasCA Report Abuse Hey Aviator Rob, instead of telling us what we need, go out and invent some alternatives. Now that doesn't mean with my money. You can use yours for that. Also your not one of the those guys who tells everyone what to do while sitting on their butts?
umitb Champion Author Indianapolis Posts:3,686 Points:845,390 Joined:Apr 2010	Message Posted: May 8, 2012 9:08:51 PM Ignore umitb Report Abuse ok
jem069 Champion Author Detroit Posts:2,553 Points:690,005 Joined:Jan 2011	Message Posted: May 8, 2012 9:08:28 PM Ignore jem069 Report Abuse Ok
laynetc Champion Author Washington Posts:1,237 Points:242,955 Joined:Feb 2008	Message Posted: May 8, 2012 9:07:17 PM Ignore laynetc Report Abuse 100 years sounds like a long time -- but in 80 years the crisis will begin. How about the geo-thermal?
PrinceLH Champion Author Ontario Posts:2,707 Points:540,970 Joined:Jun 2011	Message Posted: May 8, 2012 9:02:56 PM Ignore PrinceLH Report Abuse Speculators must be sent packing.
toytech3 All-Star Author Chicago Posts:917 Points:610,820 Joined:Mar 2011	Message Posted: May 8, 2012 9:00:58 PM Ignore toytech3 Report Abuse Get rid of the speculators
DutchTreatMI Champion Author Grand Rapids Posts:3,320 Points:753,640 Joined:Mar 2011	Message Posted: May 8, 2012 8:58:46 PM Ignore DutchTreatMI Report Abuse Speculation involved here too.
Aviator_Rob Champion Author New York Posts:3,810 Points:416,040 Joined:Mar 2012	Message Posted: May 8, 2012 8:57:49 PM Ignore Aviator_Rob Report Abuse I'm concerned whenever anyone predicts there's a hundred year supply of anything. What will our grandchildren do in 101 years after we've used up everything? Doesn't anyone believe in saving something for future generations? We need to stop kicking the can down the road and develop fossil fuel alternatives now. There's no guarantee it'll be an easy fix and we're just wasting time with all this "Drill baby, drill!"
Dodge_Me Champion Author Atlanta Posts:2,214 Points:557,730 Joined:Mar 2006	Message Posted: May 8, 2012 8:57:34 PM Ignore Dodge_Me Report Abuse yeah right, forecast what? [Edited by: Dodge_Me at 5/8/2012 11:57:42 PM EST]
g747 Champion Author Mobile Posts:4,551 Points:935,620 Joined:Jul 2009	Message Posted: May 8, 2012 8:57:29 PM Ignore g747 Report Abuse I agree!!!!!!!!.
zaq001 Champion Author Atlanta Posts:3,990 Points:1,475,775 Joined:Oct 2008	Message Posted: May 8, 2012 8:57:25 PM Ignore zaq001 Report Abuse ok
bonzoonfmb Champion Author Florida Posts:1,792 Points:646,535 Joined:Feb 2010	Message Posted: May 8, 2012 8:57:23 PM Ignore bonzoonfmb Report Abuse Just wait for the speculators to make an impact.
livedream Champion Author Michigan Posts:3,695 Points:757,010 Joined:Mar 2011	Message Posted: May 8, 2012 8:56:22 PM Ignore livedream Report Abuse This is an expected stance from Oilprice.com -- It leaves price volatility wide open.
Aviator_Rob Champion Author New York Posts:3,810 Points:416,040 Joined:Mar 2012	Message Posted: May 8, 2012 8:52:41 PM Ignore Aviator_Rob Report Abuse I like what milespergallon said about hydrogen as an alternative fuel but where will the hydrogen come from? You can't drill for hydrogen. Currently, it comes from converting natural gas as a feedstock into hydrogen and carbon dioxide. Creating hydrogen through electrolysis sounds great but it takes more energy to get the hydrogen than what you get FROM the hydrogen.
5kvdave All-Star Author Los Angeles Posts:688 Points:350,000 Joined:May 2011	Message Posted: May 8, 2012 8:52:08 PM Ignore 5kvdave Report Abuse Like the weather.