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The Impossibility of Forecasting the Natural Gas Market

Oilprice.com -- Let me start by admitting that the future of natural gas is especially difficult to predict. Commodity forecasting is always a pseudo-science at best. At times it seems that its primary function is to make astrology look respectable.

But America has enormous natural gas resources, roughly a 100 year supply. That supply could be the low cost/low pollution energy source that provides a bridge to a better economic and environmental future. Or it may just sit in the ground for some time.

After 25 years in the oil and gas business I spent ten years working in public policy and politics. In many ways that made geophysics seem pretty straightforward. But I did learn at least one valuable lesson: In spite of all the flowery words, there is no more powerful force for change than the market.

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Submitted May 08, 2012 By: NOTSOGRN

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pnd1 Champion Author Tallahassee Posts:5,201 Points:1,065,110 Joined:Jul 2009	Message Posted: May 8, 2012 5:57:09 PM Ignore pnd1 Report Abuse I want a CNG car, but there have to be places to fill it up.
menagerie1013 Champion Author San Diego Posts:2,365 Points:689,990 Joined:Apr 2011	Message Posted: May 8, 2012 5:48:24 PM Ignore menagerie1013 Report Abuse As soon as they find a reliable outlet for the natural gas and get people hooked, the price will skyrocket.
theschmuck Champion Author Michigan Posts:2,922 Points:1,512,600 Joined:Mar 2007	Message Posted: May 8, 2012 5:47:05 PM Ignore theschmuck Report Abuse 'oceansidePalms - thirstyauto and mplato' all have good replies for thought.
DustyHorse Champion Author Virginia Posts:6,087 Points:1,391,845 Joined:Oct 2008	Message Posted: May 8, 2012 5:44:59 PM Ignore DustyHorse Report Abuse Anyone that can predict the future with accuracy can be very rich.
Teddy95 Champion Author Dayton Posts:41,145 Points:2,696,125 Joined:Oct 2005	Message Posted: May 8, 2012 5:43:50 PM Ignore Teddy95 Report Abuse Hummm....
OceansidePoms Champion Author Massachusetts Posts:1,680 Points:687,325 Joined:Nov 2008	Message Posted: May 8, 2012 5:42:27 PM Ignore OceansidePoms Report Abuse You can't TRULY FORECAST ANYTHING! I mean hell, I can't even forecast that we'll all die someday, because who knows what could happen between 1 second from now & in the next 100 years? I'm sure not going to try & forecast it, cuz like everyone else, I truly have NO 100% accurate idea! [Edited by: OceansidePoms at 5/8/2012 8:43:37 PM EST]
thirstyauto Champion Author Milwaukee Posts:14,712 Points:1,619,645 Joined:Nov 2008	Message Posted: May 8, 2012 5:31:25 PM Ignore thirstyauto Report Abuse The reasources are one thing, harvesting them is another.
mplato Champion Author Columbia Posts:8,254 Points:1,816,245 Joined:Jun 2004	Message Posted: May 8, 2012 5:30:58 PM Ignore mplato Report Abuse ipossible to forecast any market....thats why its called speculation
bigrigAZ Champion Author Phoenix Posts:1,738 Points:1,053,685 Joined:Jul 2008	Message Posted: May 8, 2012 5:24:01 PM Ignore bigrigAZ Report Abuse Too long an article to even read.
ezone Champion Author Florida Posts:2,421 Points:947,110 Joined:Oct 2008	Message Posted: May 8, 2012 5:22:13 PM Ignore ezone Report Abuse Right now we have over-supply, making prices exceedingly low. Great, right? Not so much, because if the companies can't make money the development will stop. Increased usage in electricity generation and motor vehicles will shift the equation into better perspective with higher (but still very low) prices and a reasonable profit for developers and producers. It's called CAPITALISM, a great system even though it is detested by the current Marxist regime. NObama 2012.
RickF350 Champion Author Washington Posts:3,419 Points:705,775 Joined:Apr 2008	Message Posted: May 8, 2012 5:21:50 PM Ignore RickF350 Report Abuse Okay.
Bonito Champion Author Dayton Posts:15,754 Points:3,007,895 Joined:Jun 2004	Message Posted: May 8, 2012 5:17:43 PM Ignore Bonito Report Abuse I agree too----Stop the speculation and protect the 90% of the people getting nailed!!
WIPACKERFAN Champion Author Chicago Posts:8,804 Points:1,843,450 Joined:Aug 2005	Message Posted: May 8, 2012 5:15:16 PM Ignore WIPACKERFAN Report Abuse Stop the speculation!
LSU_TIGERS_dmb Champion Author Louisiana Posts:1,714 Points:620,770 Joined:May 2011	Message Posted: May 8, 2012 5:14:14 PM Ignore LSU_TIGERS_dmb Report Abuse agree gary
garyr86 Champion Author Michigan Posts:1,998 Points:604,665 Joined:Dec 2010	Message Posted: May 8, 2012 5:10:25 PM Ignore garyr86 Report Abuse Supply and demand only works without government interference
gasman50 Champion Author Portland Posts:8,844 Points:2,409,485 Joined:Nov 2005	Message Posted: May 8, 2012 5:05:31 PM Ignore gasman50 Report Abuse Time will tell.....
MINIWINI598 Champion Author Washington Posts:3,017 Points:518,700 Joined:Dec 2011	Message Posted: May 8, 2012 5:02:24 PM Ignore MINIWINI598 Report Abuse ok
SUPERQUACK Champion Author Sacramento Posts:6,126 Points:1,911,830 Joined:Jun 2007	Message Posted: May 8, 2012 5:00:26 PM Ignore SUPERQUACK Report Abuse EXACTLY
checkitnow Champion Author Atlanta Posts:2,041 Points:572,545 Joined:Aug 2010	Message Posted: May 8, 2012 4:56:37 PM Ignore checkitnow Report Abuse forecasting any highly regulated, overly constrained market is impossible when government has its thumb on the scales
Topshopper2011 Champion Author New Jersey Posts:1,008 Points:276,365 Joined:Aug 2011	Message Posted: May 8, 2012 4:50:56 PM Ignore Topshopper2011 Report Abuse NG can be pumped to peoples Garages from their houses to fuel NG powered Civics, other brands Vans and Trucks right now!
saleboss Champion Author Phoenix Posts:3,929 Points:1,177,875 Joined:Feb 2006	Message Posted: May 8, 2012 4:45:41 PM Ignore saleboss Report Abuse If NG was available I would use it in my car!
DeHavilland Champion Author Toronto Posts:5,875 Points:1,904,240 Joined:Jun 2007	Message Posted: May 8, 2012 4:34:15 PM Ignore DeHavilland Report Abuse Natural gas doesn't pollute near as much as gasoline and you don't need to refine it either.
koikaze Veteran Author Sacramento Posts:397 Points:110,300 Joined:Aug 2011	Message Posted: May 8, 2012 4:30:21 PM Ignore koikaze Report Abuse good
mfeldstein Champion Author Ottawa Posts:8,171 Points:1,930,480 Joined:Feb 2007	Message Posted: May 8, 2012 4:28:24 PM Ignore mfeldstein Report Abuse Someday maybe, suckers will learn the impossibility of forecasting anything.
BrucePen Champion Author Ontario Posts:6,606 Points:1,362,815 Joined:Sep 2008	Message Posted: May 8, 2012 4:25:38 PM Ignore BrucePen Report Abuse We need to power our cars with NGV fuel.
walkingtall Champion Author Toronto Posts:3,999 Points:1,121,680 Joined:Nov 2004	Message Posted: May 8, 2012 4:22:46 PM Ignore walkingtall Report Abuse Let the markets operate on there own.
johnnyg1200 Champion Author St. Louis Posts:4,162 Points:644,895 Joined:May 2011	Message Posted: May 8, 2012 4:20:22 PM Ignore johnnyg1200 Report Abuse It’s actually very easy to predict natural gas prices. It’s like any other commodity. If we have a shift to natural gas as the demand goes up the price will follow. Add to that the fact that “fracking” is under attack the supply will start to go down. Again the price will be driven up even more. We need to understand that the government wants “green” energy and will find a way to make it cheaper than carbon based energy. Because the “green” energy we have now it very expensive they must find a way to increase the price of the other energy sources. They will do that by regulation of the extraction meatheads, by preventing exploration for new gas and oil fields and taxation like cap and trade. Cheap natural gas is a short term thing don’t get sucked into it as a solution.
BigBob12345 Champion Author Gasbuddy Posts:1,521 Points:304,730 Joined:Aug 2011	Message Posted: May 8, 2012 4:16:58 PM Ignore BigBob12345 Report Abuse Just let the markets operate on their own without any outside influences.
1fuelish1 Champion Author Charlotte Posts:14,808 Points:1,853,470 Joined:Dec 2005	Message Posted: May 8, 2012 4:15:22 PM Ignore 1fuelish1 Report Abuse ShabbyPA - Chrysler is going to market a Ram pickup next year that is CNG operable. Another benefit of the bailout.
armey Champion Author Oregon Posts:1,296 Points:310,255 Joined:Aug 2008	Message Posted: May 8, 2012 4:15:18 PM Ignore armey Report Abuse Ok!
fullauto Champion Author Reading Posts:5,320 Points:1,472,065 Joined:Apr 2008	Message Posted: May 8, 2012 4:15:02 PM Ignore fullauto Report Abuse predict anything -luck.
crashintuc34 Champion Author Tucson Posts:4,052 Points:811,890 Joined:May 2010	Message Posted: May 8, 2012 4:12:27 PM Ignore crashintuc34 Report Abuse Yep.
mikaye Champion Author Cleveland Posts:3,834 Points:865,410 Joined:Jun 2010	Message Posted: May 8, 2012 4:10:28 PM Ignore mikaye Report Abuse any commodity can flux
ShabbyPA Champion Author Pennsylvania Posts:2,815 Points:680,490 Joined:Nov 2007	Message Posted: May 8, 2012 4:09:53 PM Ignore ShabbyPA Report Abuse NEED TO MAKE CARS AND TRUCKS TO RUN ON NATURAL GAS!
joezIN Champion Author Gary Posts:1,663 Points:331,810 Joined:May 2011	Message Posted: May 8, 2012 4:09:12 PM Ignore joezIN Report Abuse ok
monarch57 Champion Author British Columbia Posts:1,628 Points:135,710 Joined:Nov 2008	Message Posted: May 8, 2012 4:06:13 PM Ignore monarch57 Report Abuse It's come down here.
stratlinetime Champion Author Kalamazoo Posts:2,281 Points:563,835 Joined:Feb 2011	Message Posted: May 8, 2012 4:03:31 PM Ignore stratlinetime Report Abuse Good article
kc58veteran Champion Author Pennsylvania Posts:2,526 Points:586,605 Joined:Jul 2009	Message Posted: May 8, 2012 4:03:20 PM Ignore kc58veteran Report Abuse JUST MORE OBAMA & THE DEMOCRATS NONSENSE! VOTE TO CLEAN OUT WASHINGTON IN 2012!
TelsaOR Champion Author Oregon Posts:3,566 Points:733,965 Joined:Jan 2011	Message Posted: May 8, 2012 4:03:01 PM Ignore TelsaOR Report Abuse Too bad they won't develop the Pickens Plan. With all the natural gas we have we could easily convert our entire truck fleet to natural gas freeing up all that oil for gasoline. As long as there's big profit to be made in oil we won't see much natural gas. Too bad.
CQQKIE All-Star Author Illinois Posts:970 Points:349,065 Joined:Jul 2008	Message Posted: May 8, 2012 4:01:43 PM Ignore CQQKIE Report Abuse Ok.
SavinOnFuel Champion Author Gary Posts:1,966 Points:1,256,910 Joined:Nov 2007	Message Posted: May 8, 2012 3:59:51 PM Ignore SavinOnFuel Report Abuse Day by day just like everything else
rjhenn Champion Author Des Moines Posts:22,444 Points:2,229,925 Joined:Aug 2005	Message Posted: May 8, 2012 3:30:48 PM Ignore rjhenn Report Abuse Yes, it appears to be a quality article. Unusual these days.
slowtrain Champion Author Georgia Posts:3,667 Points:948,900 Joined:Aug 2008	Message Posted: May 8, 2012 2:47:35 PM Ignore slowtrain Report Abuse Nobody, except God, can see the future.
jimgraham Champion Author Akron Posts:10,372 Points:1,979,960 Joined:Oct 2007	Message Posted: May 8, 2012 2:44:54 PM Ignore jimgraham Report Abuse The article said, concerning "clean coal" - - ""When has so much ever been said about so little, and so much paid for TV ads to say it?"" The answer in one word. Politics. A VERY GOOOOOOOD and well written article. Thanks for posting it NOTSOGRN..
032946 Champion Author Twin Cities Posts:19,860 Points:4,044,045 Joined:Oct 2001	Message Posted: May 8, 2012 2:37:02 PM Ignore 032946 Report Abuse OK
paulydel Champion Author Delaware Posts:8,789 Points:847,900 Joined:Jan 2008	Message Posted: May 8, 2012 2:32:42 PM Ignore paulydel Report Abuse The speculators will take care of that.
umitb Champion Author Indianapolis Posts:3,681 Points:844,415 Joined:Apr 2010	Message Posted: May 8, 2012 2:29:59 PM Ignore umitb Report Abuse ok
Nancy&Len Champion Author Cleveland Posts:2,053 Points:1,945,815 Joined:Sep 2004	Message Posted: May 8, 2012 2:27:11 PM Ignore Nancy&Len Report Abuse Don't always believe what you read.
TNT2EC Champion Author Wisconsin Posts:4,994 Points:1,513,585 Joined:Oct 2008	Message Posted: May 8, 2012 2:26:59 PM Ignore TNT2EC Report Abuse My fuel oil company has a hard time too. My monthly budget helper payment went from $240 to $85 and fule oil prices have remained the same. They don't have a cue and just want my money.
gass12 Champion Author Omaha Posts:8,394 Points:2,304,690 Joined:Oct 2005	Message Posted: May 8, 2012 2:25:48 PM Ignore gass12 Report Abuse It is the best thing out their right now.
TBRR Champion Author Jacksonville Posts:3,672 Points:599,320 Joined:Dec 2007	Message Posted: May 8, 2012 2:22:28 PM Ignore TBRR Report Abuse woopity doo!!